Data Sources

Our climate data are based on regionally downscaled climate models with a resolution of up to 20 kilometers from the HighResMip working group, which is part of the IPCC CMIP6 project. This allows for direct comparison of different climate models to identify vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change and assess their effects on sectors such as agriculture and public health.

Using typical weather variables with daily resolution from 1950 to 2050, common climate parameters such as the number of days with temperatures exceeding 30°C or the duration and frequency of droughts can be estimated. Additionally, daily data enable the execution of models to forecast crop yields, pest infestations, and water balance.

Projections beyond 2050 are highly dependent on various emission scenarios. The high-resolution climate models approximate RCP8.5 within CMIP6 as closely as possible. While other models consider different emission scenarios, the deviations in these scenarios are less pronounced up to 2050.

The climate models used vary in their accuracy and level of uncertainty, and depending on the analysis, some models may be more suitable than others.

We use the following weather models for analysis:

MPI_ESM1_2_XR (Germany)
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg 20146, Germany. (MPI-ESM1.2)

EC_Earth3P_HR (Europe)
EC-Earth Consortium, Rossby Center, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden. (EC-Earth: EC-Earth3P)

CMCC-CM2-VHR4 (Italy)
Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Lecce (CMCC)

FGOALS_f3_H (China)
Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (CAS)

HiRAM_SIT_HR (Taiwan)
Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Nankang, Taipei (AS-RCEC)

MRI_AGCM3_2_S (Japan)
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (MRI)

NICAM16_8S (Japan)
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan (MIROC).